The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved an 11-year power generation and transmission plan involving around $58 billion in investment through 2035, despite significant reservations raised by all three members of the regulator.
NEPRA approved the Integrated System Plan 2025 through a 45-page decision, subject to its observations being addressed. The regulator’s members, including the chairman, recorded more than 12 pages of dissenting and separate advisory notes regarding the plan.
The members questioned the inclusion and exclusion of several major projects and also raised concerns about the plan bypassing the Council of Common Interests (CCI), the constitutional forum responsible for matters including national energy policy and planning.
The plan uses a low-growth business-as-usual scenario as its reference case for future generation expansion. It assumes average GDP growth of 3.52% and provides for 26,045 MW of additional generation capacity, including 17,485 MW already committed and 8,560 MW optimized.
After the retirement of 2,577 MW of existing capacity, total installed generation capacity is projected to reach 62,657 MW by 2035. The plan also includes 8,120 MW of net-metering capacity, while the estimated cost of additional generation capacity stands at $47.08 billion.
Transmission investments are estimated at $10.65 billion over the planning period. This includes $4.6 billion for ongoing or committed projects and around $6.05 billion for new transmission expansion.
The transmission component covers power evacuation schemes, network reinforcements, new extra-high-voltage substations, transformer expansions and voltage-control facilities. It also includes a 40 MW on-site power plant for the Gwadar and Makran region amid disruptions to electricity imports from Iran.
NEPRA rejected a proposed $900 million investment in battery energy storage systems until a detailed technical and economic study determines their need, optimal capacity, operational requirements and cost-effectiveness.
The regulator also raised concerns over conflicting positions from the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) and the Power Planning and Monitoring Company regarding the plan’s impact on consumer electricity tariffs.
NEPRA directed that the impact on consumer-end tariffs be properly calculated and incorporated into the main plan.
According to projections by the Power Planning and Monitoring Company, the consumer-end base electricity tariff could rise to Rs37.28 per unit by 2035, compared with Rs34 per unit in 2024-25.
NEPRA also criticized ISMO for disclaiming responsibility for the accuracy, authenticity and completeness of the data and projections used to prepare the plan. The regulator said these concerns need to be addressed before the plan can be fully implemented.
